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C114讯 4月4日深度评论（李明）2018年华为全球销售收入首次突破千亿美元大关（7212亿元人民币），同比增长19.5%。其中，华为消费者业务已经取代运营商业务成为华为营收占比排名第一的BG。

财报刚出炉，华为又趁热打铁，对其手机业务提出了更高目标——4月2日，华为消费者业务CEO余承东通过微博表示：“华为消费者业务已经发展到一个全新的历史阶段，今年华为+荣耀很可能成为全球第一手机厂商。华为单品牌未来要做到全球第一；荣耀品牌做到中国前二，全球前四。”

山东格伦德电源电源科技有限公司  联系人：孟经理   咨询热线：183-6606-8668

那么，余承东哪来的底气？华为冲冠之路将面临哪些挑战？戏份越来越足的荣耀未来如何更好发展？如果余承东这次立的flag又能如愿实现，那么全球智能手机市场格局又将出现何种走势？

余承东的冲冠底气

按下发布键的一瞬间，这条微博就在圈内引起了接近“热搜”级别的关注。有支持者认为华为有志气、有希望，也有不一样的声音认为余承东又在吹牛了。不过在笔者看来，余承东这回这牛吹得可是有相当“底气”！

底气1.行业地位：去年华为出货量2.06亿台，市场份额14.7%，同比大幅增长33.6%，以非常微弱的劣势屈居苹果之后位列第三；与苹果出货量已经不相伯仲的华为自然很想再向前一步，那就是剑指全球第一。

底气2.业务高速增长：华为消费者业务2018年实现销售收入3489亿元人民币，同比增长45.1%，在华为集团总收入中的占比提高到48.4%，成为整个华为2018年收入中贡献最大的业务。华为近日还授权消费者业务“军团作战”、自主改革，在组织结构设计和薪酬体系的边界内放开，希望通过五年时间打造一支铁军。而华为消费者业务的目标是到2023年达到1500亿美元的年销售收入，按照规划，整个华为公司在2023年的年销售收入会在2500-3000亿美元之间，消费者业务有望长期占据华为整体年收入半壁江山。

底气3.双品牌最成功的厂商：在双品牌大行其道的今天，“华为+荣耀”双品牌运作模式目前已经取得阶段性胜利，华为稳居全球前三；荣耀已经成为互联网手机第一品牌，另据赛诺2019年1月中国市场数据，荣耀以513万台的销量超越苹果排名中国市场第四，已进入第一梯队阵营。

底气4.技术积累：华为坚持每年将10%以上销售收入投入研发。2018年华为研发费用达1015亿元人民币，占销售收入的14.1%，同比增长13.2%；近十年华为投入研发费用累计达到4850亿元人民币。而在华为研发投入中，用于手机相关研发占比也相当大。三星虽然是业界公认的全产业链能力最强的手机厂商，但与三星全产业链模式相似的华为也有自身优势，比如自研海思芯片，尤其是5G时代在云、网络、终端、芯片等真正端到端的优势。

如日中天的华为，确实迎来了弯道超车的最佳时机。

逆袭之路绝非坦途

如果按照余承东所期望的“今年华为+荣耀很可能成为全球第一手机厂商”，笔者认为必须至少满足以下两个条件：首先是三星今年出货量继续下滑；同时华为手机今年出货量必须达到、最好是超过2.6亿台的预期目标，华为才有可能逆袭三星上位全球第一。

但随着市场的进一步饱和，尤其是换机周期的拉长，智能手机整体出货量规模已经多个季度持续萎缩，2019年对手机行业来说可能是更加困难的一年。盘子就那么大，此消才能彼长，今年手机厂商若想实现增长可能还是来自于对竞争对手的蚕食。

站在支持国产手机发展的立场，笔者认为不宜过度吹捧，因为华为冲冠之路“机遇不小，挑战更大”。

挑战1）高位冲冠如何摆正心态？过去是追赶，现在华为在拍照等方面已经领先，千万不能让眼前胜利冲昏头脑，苹果iOS独树一帜、三星全产业链优势仍在，华为万万不可轻敌；战略方向一定不能出错，即使高端市场持续高歌猛进，也不能忽视中端以及低端市场，南坡和北坡都要守住，并且必须始终坚定以客户为中心的理念。

挑战2）5G产品节奏如何把控？5G可能是整个手机产业又一个分水岭，不过预计2019年下半年5G才初步具备商用条件，商用初期的5G手机基本都是采用旗舰级芯片外挂5G基带的方式，售价近万元，非常昂贵，千元5G手机至少要再等两三年。考虑到终端芯片的成熟时间表一般会滞后于网络12-18个月，因此华为在5G手机的推出节奏上虽然必须保持业界领先，但也不能太操之过急。

挑战3）自研芯片差异化优势如何延续？海思芯片，尤其是海思麒麟旗舰级芯片一直是华为手机差异化优势的杀手锏，去年海思是全球前十大芯片设计公司中增长最快的，排名也随之飙升至第五。5G时代的手机芯片面临多模多频、多种组网方式等诸多新挑战，海思芯片能否继续扮演好支撑华为手机高速增长“核芯”动力的角色，至关重要。

挑战4）渠道建设能否与时俱进？虽然今天的线上渠道无比发达，但在新零售大势之下，线下渠道迎来了第二春。随着用户需求不断提高，越来越多的用户开始愿意在线下进行体验以后再选择在线上或是线下购买产品。比如苹果超大规模的线下门店就值得借鉴，OV在线下渠道的经验也值得学习。或许某一天华为也有几个像苹果那么大的线下门店，才与华为规划中全球第一的身份相匹配。

挑战5）海外市场能否实现突破？虽然华为系在海外市场已经开挂，例如刚刚新鲜出炉的《2019年BrandZ中国出海品牌50强报告》显示，华为继连续两年获得亚军之后，今年最终以1862分的品牌价值首次夺得头筹，已经位列榜单冠军。此外，2018年荣耀在海外市场同比大幅增长170%。但由于国内市场格局已经相对稳定，今年华为+荣耀能否在海外市场继续攻城略地、尤其是在一些新兴市场和从未涉足的市场开荒打粮，是其能否逆袭的关键。

挑战6）品牌调性能否更上一层楼？运营商市场出身的华为，最初在做手机发布会的时候总感觉像在讲核心网，品牌营销是其短板，比如像友商那种“照亮你的美”那种深入人心、直截了当的营销话术并非华为擅长，因此虽然技术性能强大好像什么都行，但产品核心卖点并不容易让消费者get。好在随着华为P系列、Mate系列的大获成功，尤其是华为nova系列等面向年轻消费者产品的推出，以及荣耀品牌在年轻人群中的持续发力，华为系的打法才开始被年轻用户和女性用户等更多用户群体所喜爱，比如近两年华为和荣耀尝试找当红小鲜肉明星代言，效果甚佳。但与OV等深受年轻用户喜爱的品牌相比，华为系的品牌调性和营销打法仍有提升空间。也许有一天，当更多网红小姐姐选择用华为或荣耀系列手机直播的时候，他们就真成天下第一了。

荣耀戏份加重：单枪匹马飞奔“中国前二、全球前四”

总结了4大底气却有6大挑战，足见华为的逆袭之路绝非坦途。

而在余承东提出的4点宏伟大目标中，荣耀就占了3条，可见在余承东导演的“逆袭大戏”中荣耀将扮演更加重要的角色。

市场研究机构赛诺发布的2018年中国市场销量数据显示，2018年全年，荣耀手机以5427万台销量位列中国智能手机市场TOP4、以782.9亿元的销售额入围中国智能手机市场TOP5，销量及销售额均同比增长13%。2018年华为单品牌在中国智能手机市场的销量为6490万台。双品牌运作下，荣耀的销量正占据整个华为手机销量越来越多的比重，双品牌之间的差距逐渐逼近。

但在头部品牌加剧洗牌的行业弯道，作为互联网手机第一品牌，荣耀要想在互联网手机第一品牌的位置上更进一步，也并非易事。

中国市场来看，如果把华为和荣耀两个品牌的出货量拆分统计的话，荣耀品牌若想做到中国前二，不但要进一步与老对手小米拉开差距，还要完成对OPPO、vivo的超越。华为若想以单品牌继续称霸中国手机市场第一宝座，则需要比目前更高的年复合增长率才有可能实现。

全球市场来看，假设未来华为单品牌能够做到全球第一，三星、苹果恐怕短期内还是荣耀无法超越的对手。此外，在全球市场，荣耀也要面临与小米、OPPO、vivo等国内友商的竞争。按照当前的座次来看，荣耀出货量必须超过1.2亿台甚至更多，才有可能入围全球前四。赶超之路，同样并非坦途。

对此，荣耀总裁赵明表示：“雄关漫道真如铁，而今迈步从头越。”在余总的全新战略目标中，荣耀肩负重任：中国前二，全球前四！全球战场、全新里程，困难越大，荣耀越大！我们必须撸起袖子，抓住机遇，用“极具竞争力”的产品让用户满意，让荣耀更加荣耀！

余承东也承诺将“全力支持荣耀发展，将会给荣耀极具竞争力的产品！”

双品牌年出货量若超4亿：手机市场将重新洗牌

写到这里，忽然想起那个梗：外号“余大嘴”的余承东，传闻以前因为他总是嚷嚷着华为要超越苹果、超越三星，为这还被任老板罚过款。

不过，从客观事实来看，老余过去几年定的彼时看起来“不可能”的目标，如今还真都实现了。

七年前的2012年9月22日，余承东发布微博称：“自从负责华为消费者业务后，我们做了几个大调整：1.从ODM白牌运营商定制，向OEM华为自有品牌转型。2、从低端向中高端智能终端提升。3.放弃销量很大但并不赚钱的超低端功能手机。4.启用华为海思四核处理器和Balong芯片。5.开启华为电商之路。6.启动用户体验Emotion UI设计。7.确立硬件世界第一之目标！”

今天，余承东为华为消费者业务定的7个战略目标已经全部实现。

如果这次余承东定的大目标也能全部实现，那么全球智能手机市场格局或将发生巨变！试想一下：如果全球市场华为第一、荣耀前四，这也将是手机市场历史上首次出现同一厂商的两个品牌同时进入行业TOP5；如果中国市场华为单品牌第一、荣耀品牌跻身中国前二，也将在国内市场创造历史。更为恐怖的是，如果老余这次的目标真实现了，那么华为+荣耀一年的总体出货量或将突破4亿台！

理想很丰满，但当其照进现实，必然存在很多必须面对的难题和挑战。不过，结合华为+荣耀过去的晋级之路来看，我们可以预期：这条路，必然是有崎岖，也有希望。

写在最后想说的是：成功绝非偶然，而是无数次努力之后的水到渠成！

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C114 in-depth comments on April 4 (Li Ming) Huawei's global sales revenue surpassed the $100 billion mark for the first time in 2018 (72.12 billion yuan), up 19.5% year-on-year. Among them, Huawei's consumer business has replaced the operator business as Huawei's top-ranking BG in revenue.

Just after the earnings report came out, Huawei took advantage of the hot iron and set higher goals for its mobile phone business. On April 2, Yu Chengdong, CEO of Huawei's consumer business, said through Weibo: "Huawei's consumer business has developed to a new historical stage, and this year Huawei + Glory is likely to become the first mobile phone manufacturer in the world. Huawei Brand will be the first in the world in the future, and Glorious Brand will be the first two in China and the top four in the world.

So, where did Yu Chengdong come from? What challenges will Huawei face on its way to the top? How can the glorious future of more and more drama develop better? If Yu Chengdong's flag can be realized again, what trend will appear in the global smartphone market?

Yu Chengdong's Bottom Gas

At the moment of pressing the release button, the microblog aroused close attention in the circle to the "hot search" level. Some supporters believe that Huawei has ambition and hope, but there are also different voices that think Yu Chengdong is boasting again. However, in my opinion, Yu Chengdong's bragging this time is quite "bottom spirit"!

Industry status: Huawei shipped 206 million units last year, with a market share of 14.7%, a significant increase of 33.6% over the previous year, ranking third behind Apple with a very weak disadvantage; Huawei, which is no longer the same as Apple shipments, naturally wants to take another step forward, that is, Jianzhi is the first in the world.

Business growth: Huawei's consumer business achieved sales revenue of 348.9 billion yuan in 2018, up 45.1% year-on-year. The proportion of Huawei Group's total revenue increased to 48.4%, making Huawei the largest contributor to the total revenue of 2018. Huawei also recently authorized "Legion Warfare" and independent reform of its consumer business, opening up within the boundaries of organizational structure design and salary system, hoping to build an iron army in five years. The goal of Huawei's consumer business is to achieve annual sales revenue of 150 billion US dollars by 2023. According to the plan, Huawei's annual sales revenue will be between 25 billion and 300 billion US dollars by 2023. Consumer business is expected to occupy half of Huawei's annual revenue for a long time.

3. The most successful manufacturer of double-brand: Today, with the popularity of double-brand, Huawei+Glory double-brand operation mode has achieved a phased victory, and Huawei is in the top three in the world. Glory has become the first brand of Internet mobile phones. According to Sano's January 2019 Chinese market data, Glory ranks fourth in the Chinese market with 5.13 million units of sales, and has entered the fourth place in the Chinese market. A tier of camps.

Bottom Gas 4. Technology Accumulation: Huawei insists on investing more than 10% of its annual sales revenue in R&D. In 2018, Huawei's R&D expenditure reached 101.5 billion yuan, accounting for 14.1% of sales revenue, an increase of 13.2% compared with the same period last year. In the past decade, Huawei's R&D expenditure totaled 485 billion yuan. In Huawei's R&D investment, the proportion of mobile phone related R&D is also quite large. Although Samsung is recognized as the most powerful mobile phone manufacturer in the whole industry chain, Huawei has its own advantages similar to Samsung's whole industry chain model, such as self-developed Hess chip, especially the real end-to-end advantages of 5G era in cloud, network, terminal, chip and so on.

Like Huawei in the middle of the day, it really ushered in the best opportunity to overtake in a curve.

The road of retrogression is by no means a smooth one

If according to Yu Chengdong's expectation that "Huawei + Glory is likely to become the first mobile phone manufacturer in the world this year", I believe that the following two conditions must be met at least: first, Samsung's shipments continue to decline this year; at the same time, Huawei's mobile phone shipments this year must reach, preferably more than 260 million units of the expected target, Huawei will be able to reverse Samsung's ascendancy to the top of the world.

However, with the further saturation of the market, especially the longer switching cycle, the overall size of smartphone shipments has been shrinking for many quarters, and 2019 may be a more difficult year for the mobile phone industry. The plate is so big that it will last forever. If mobile phone manufacturers want to achieve growth this year, it may still come from the nibbling of competitors.

Standing in the position of supporting the development of domestic mobile phones, the author believes that it is not advisable to overpraise, because Huawei's road to championship is "not small opportunities, but greater challenges".

Challenge 1) How to correct the attitude of high-ranking crowns? In the past, Huawei has taken the lead in photography and other aspects. We must not let the current victory daze us. Apple's iOS is unique and the advantages of Samsung's whole industrial chain are still there. Huawei must not underestimate the enemy. We must not make mistakes in the strategic direction. Even if the high-end market continues to advance rapidly, we must not ignore the middle-end and low-end markets. Both the South and north slopes must be held and started. Finally, we firmly adhere to the customer-centered concept.

Challenge 2) How to control the rhythm of 5G products? 5G may be another watershed for the whole mobile phone industry, but it is expected that 5G will be commercially available in the second half of 2019. In the initial stage of commerce, 5G mobile phones are basically equipped with 5G baseband attached to flagship chips. The price is nearly 10,000 yuan, which is very expensive. The 5,000 yuan mobile phone will have to wait for at least two or three years. Considering that the maturity schedule of terminal chips usually lags behind that of the network for 12-18 months, Huawei has to keep pace with the launch of 5G mobile phones.

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